#152 - Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa - We Believe We’re In The Early Stages Of A Bear Market

55 minutes

In episode 152 we welcome Kevin Smith and Tavi Costa of Crescat Capital. Kevin kicks off the conversation with an overview of Crescat’s approach, the long-only strategy, long/short equity hedge fund, and Global Macro Fund.

Tavi then gets into high equity market valuations, their macro model that has timed well in backtests with previous market peaks and troughs in the tech and housing bubbles, 15 countries with 30-year bond yields below the Fed Funds rate, and demand for U.S. Treasuries and the U.S. dollar.  Kevin follows up with some comments on implementation and expressing these views in their portfolio, and why they continue to trust their process and remain net-short equities.

Next, Tavi gets into Crescat’s thesis on China and the potential credit bubble, and the vulnerable Chinese currency as a result.

Meb then asks about Crescat’s bullish thesis on precious metals. Kevin discusses that trade’s role in the portfolio, and its place as a theme in the global macro fund, which includes, a short equity theme, long precious metals theme, and a short Chinese Yuan theme.

Meb asks the pair to get into some of their other themes that stand out as opportunities. Kevin links the Canadian housing bubble and Australian debt crisis themes to China and Chinese capital outflows. He also covers some longs as part of their cybersecurity theme such as Palo Alto Networks.

Meb shifts by asking about what investors should takeaway from Crescat’s thinking, Kevin adds that people should think about more tactical asset allocation, become increasingly defensive, and consider some alternatives. Tavi adds that investors may want to consider cash, precious metals, and perhaps some Treasuries.  

As the conversation winds down, Meb asks about anything else they consider that isn’t covered widely in the media or by investment managers. Kevin discusses consumer confidence, and Tavi adds twin deficits and an alternative view of beta.

All this and more in episode 152.  

More episodes from The Meb Faber Show

#268 - Best Idea Show - Doug Ludlow, MainStreet - We’re Now Saving The Average Company Using Our Platform About $75,000 Per Year

In episode 268, we welcome our guest, Doug Ludlow, the co-founder and CEO of MainStreet, a startup making it easy for businesses to access government incentive programs. In today’s episode, …

The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Tyler, Portfolio Charts - The Benefits of Bond Convexity

Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved …

#267 - Edward Altman, NYU - We Had More Billion Dollar Bankruptcies In 2020 As Of September Of This Year Than Any Year Ever

In episode 267, we welcome our guest, Edward Altman, professor at the Stern School of Business at NYU. In today’s episode, we’re talking corporate …

Cambria Fund Profile Series – Cambria Asset Allocation ETFs (GAA) (GMOM) (TRTY)

In today’s episode of the Cambria Fund Profile Series, Meb discusses Cambria’s Asset Allocation ETFs, the Cambria Global Asset Allocation ETF (GAA), the Cambria Global Momentum ETF (GMOM), …

#266 - Best Idea Show - Kiyan Zandiyeh, Sturgeon Capital - We Have A Blank Canvas To Potentially Create What The Technology Ecosystem Of That Country Will Look Like Over The Next 5-10 Years

In episode 266, we welcome our guest, Kiyan Zandiyeh, Chief Investment Officer for Sturgeon Capital, a leading frontier markets investment boutique …

The Best Investment Writing Volume 4: Martin Tarlie, GMO - Is the U.S. Stock Market Bubble Bursting?

Last year we brought listeners the entire volume of The Best Investment Writing Volume 3, in audio format, right here on the podcast. Listeners loved …

How you can listen to this podcast

You can listen to episodes right here on the website, or if you prefer, in a podcast app. Listening in an app makes it easier to keep track of what you’ve already heard, listen without using your data plan and many other conveniences.

Recommended apps
Start listening to #125 - Tom Barton - The Biggest Problem Investors Have is Things Change...and They Don't Change
1:24:56
Start listening to #125 - Tom Barton - The Biggest Problem Investors Have is Things Change...and They Don't Change
1:24:56