#127 - Radio Show - Meb and Elon Musk Talk Shorting... Conflicting U.S. Valuation Indicators... and Listener Q&A

63 minutes

Episode 127 has a radio show format. In this one, we cover numerous Tweets of the Week from Meb as well as listener Q&A.

We start with Meb telling us about his recent back-and-forth over Twitter with Elon Musk, discussing short-selling. Meb uses this as an example to give us more information on shorting in general, as well as short-lending.

We then answer a question we’ve received (in various forms) for years – “why is the S&P (or whatever) outperforming your strategy?” For anyone looking longingly at S&P returns for the last many years, you might want to listen to this one.

Next up, we tackle some of Meb’s Tweets of the week. There’s a discussion about mixed valuation signals – on one hand, there’s the Russell 3000, with the number of companies trading for more than 10-times revenue now approaching levels from back in 2000. On the other hand, there’s a tweet claiming that “if history is any guide, with 90% confidence rate of positive correlation, this market is going to deliver between 3 to 4% per annum for the next 10 years.” Additional tweets support both sides so Meb tries to resolve it for us.

Then there’s a tweet about the challenges of sticking with your strategy during bad years. It references how the little voice of doubt in your head is all it takes “to turn the hardest resolve into the emotional putty that has destroyed generations of investors.”

There are several other tweet topics – how Research Affiliates views the probability of 5% real returns at just 1.5%... how one forecast for private equity is calling for just 1.5% returns while a different private equity manager is trumpeting the asset class’s superior performance… and how marketing is nearly as important as performance and fees when it comes to attracting investor assets.

We then jump into listener Q&A. Some you’ll hear include:

  • You often say that over the long term, asset allocation doesn't matter much. However, isn't it important to note that because the nature of compounding, a small difference in CAGR over time can amount to a large dollar amount difference in your savings?
  • What are your thoughts on using leverage with momentum?
  • Do you have any recommendations for someone looking to diversify their trend following sleeve by applying a few different rules? For example, I've been doing 1/3 50-DMA, 1/3 200-DMA, and 1/3 crossover.
  • You speak frequently about the benefit of taking a lump sum and investing now versus later. With current equity valuations (at least US) so frothy, is that still true?
  • I’m wondering about how to take losses and how to determine when it’s appropriate to take one and when it is not. Do you, as a quant, have set rules in place?

All this and more in Episode 127.

More episodes from The Meb Faber Show

#311 – Radio Show – Valuation Update…Bond Returns….Meb’s Startup Investing

Episode 311 has a radio show format. We cover a variety of topics, including: · The importance of having an investment plan · Valuations update · How Meb approaches startup investing · …

#310 – Kathryn Kaminski, AlphaSimplex - When You’re A Systematic Investor, Your Process Makes The Decision

In episode 310, we welcome our guest, Kathryn Kaminski, Chief Research Strategist at AlphaSimplex, where she’s also the co-portfolio manager for the …

#309 – Andrew Horowitz, Horowitz & Company - I Think We’re Starting To See A Little Bit Of What Happens When The Tide Goes Out

In episode 309, we welcome our guest Andrew Horowitz, President and Founder of Horowitz & Company and host of The Disciplined Investor Podcast.    In today’s episode, we start with …

#308 – Best Idea Show – Maciej Wojtal, Amtelon Capital – I Saw Iran As Potentially The Biggest Transformational Opportunity Since Russia

In episode 308, we welcome our guest, Maciej Wojtal, founder and CIO of Amtelon Capital, an investment fund focused on Iranian equities. In today's episode, we're covering Maciej’s best …

#307 – Vikram Mansharamani, Harvard Lecturer and Author - In All Bubbles, You Usually Have A ‘This Time It’s Different’ Story

In episode 307, we welcome our guest, Vikram Mansharamani, a Harvard lecturer, author, and global trend spotter who shows people how to anticipate the future, manage risk, and spot …

#306 – Jeff Seder, EQB - We Ended Up The First Triple-Crown Winner in 37 Years

In episode 306, we welcome our guest, Jeff Seder, founder of EQB, a high-tech sports medicine startup that consults with the majority of the major …

How you can listen to this podcast

You can listen to episodes right here on the website, or if you prefer, in a podcast app. Listening in an app makes it easier to keep track of what you’ve already heard, listen without using your data plan and many other conveniences.

Recommended apps
Start listening to #125 - Tom Barton - The Biggest Problem Investors Have is Things Change...and They Don't Change
1:24:56
Start listening to #125 - Tom Barton - The Biggest Problem Investors Have is Things Change...and They Don't Change
1:24:56