#100 - Elroy Dimson - “High Valuations Don't Necessarily Mean That We're Going to See Asset Prices Collapse"

54 minutes

To celebrate the milestone of reaching 100 episodes, we’re thrilled to welcome Professor Elroy Dimson, author of Meb’s favorite investing book of all time, Triumph of the Optimists.

Per Meb’s request, Elroy starts by giving us a summation of his research history which led to Triumph of the Optimists. He had a heritage in producing indexes and began reaching out to researchers across the globe in hopes of accessing different data sets. Looking at all the aggregated data, it became clear that from a long-term perspective, people who had invested in risky securities at the beginning of the century had done very well. People who had bought bonds and T-bills had not performed as well. The optimists had triumphed.

Next, Meb brings up a quote from Elroy about a controversial finding regarding the lack of correlation between economic growth and stock market performance. If anything, the relationship was reverse. Elroy expounds upon this, telling us that if it’s obvious that a market is growing, that’s public information. You can’t trade that since everyone else knows too. So, if you investing in countries where GDP has been growing, that could mean you’re too late.

Meb steers the conversation toward valuation, market cap weightings, and home country bias. Elroy walks us through the market cap concept, touching on the historical Austrian empire as well as the Japanese bubble. This leads to a lesson in finance, which includes real yields today, the Gordon Model, the multiple people are willing to pay today (which is higher), and the takeaway that “high valuations don’t necessarily mean that we’re going to see asset prices collapse” – they’re a reflection of the low interest rates we have today.

Meb asks about bonds, and whether Elroy has seen another historical period of negative yielding sovereigns. When you look at real rates, how does it play out for future returns?

Elroy tells us that real (inflation adjusted) rates are better to consider than nominal rates. And it turns out, real rates have been lower. Negative real rates are not all that rare – what is rare is so many countries experiencing them at the same time. This dovetails into a conversation about inflation and currency hedging. Elroy provides some color on currency issues but notes that hedging is not required if you’re a long-term investor.

There’s plenty more in this centennial episode: factors… growth stocks versus value stocks… historical returns of housing… even stamps, musical instruments and the investment returns of a good Bordeaux.

How does it compare to that of equities? Find out in Episode 100.

More episodes from The Meb Faber Show

#192 - Tim Hayes - The Base Case Is We’re Still In The Same Secular Bull Market That We’ve Been In Since 2009

In episode 192 we welcome our guest, Tim Hayes. Tim and Meb kick off the conversation with an overview of the data driven Ned Davis research process and how the team gains an understanding …

The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Todd Tresidder – Bubbles, Bubbles Everywhere – How To Protect Yourself

Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to …

#191 - Simon Hallett - Wherever We Can, We’ve Added Something That’s Based Upon Behavioral Finance

In episode 191, we welcome our guest, Simon Hallett. Simon and Meb start off the conversation with a run-down of Simon’s firm, Harding Loevner, cover its quality growth investment approach …

#190 - Radio Show: Buying Stocks At All Time Highs…Fund Manager Sentiment…Year End Questions for Advisors and Brokers

Episode 190 has a radio show format. We cover a variety of topics, including:

  • Buying stocks at all-time highs
  • 2010 Fund Manager of the Decade
  • Jim …

#189 - John Parise - 70% Of Wealth Is Lost In The 3rd Generation

In Episode 189 we welcome our guest, John Parise. John and Meb kick off the conversation with the idea of the family CFO and wealth planning. As John gained experience in financial …

The Best Investment Writing Volume 3: Ray Micaletti – The Smart Money Indicator: A New Risk Management Tool

Last year when we published The Best Investment Writing Volume 2, we offered authors the opportunity to record an audio version of their chapter to …

How you can listen to this podcast

You can listen to episodes right here on the website, or if you prefer, in a podcast app. Listening in an app makes it easier to keep track of what you’ve already heard, listen without using your data plan and many other conveniences.

Recommended apps
Start listening to #125 - Tom Barton - The Biggest Problem Investors Have is Things Change...and They Don't Change
1:24:56
Start listening to #125 - Tom Barton - The Biggest Problem Investors Have is Things Change...and They Don't Change
1:24:56